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Proof of Impact

Extreme weather drives claim spikes

A Proof of Concept with HDI analyzed 80,790 claims and revealed a strong link between rain/wind events and indemnities: 59.8% of the total occurred in high-probability climate windows - actionable insight for prevention, pricing, and operations.

80,790

claims analyzed

BRL 175M

in indemnities

59.8%

in high-probability windows

80,790

claims analyzed

BRL 175M

in indemnities

Precisa de ajuda?

Challenge & context

Extreme weather & claims: what the POC revealed

We analyzed HDI’s claims database and validated the correlation between severe rain/wind and claims. The study powers remote fraud screening and supports faster, safer claim decisions.

Introduction

HDI’s POC cross-referenced historical claims with severe rain/wind (sensor-based data and time/location). Goal: pinpoint when weather drives claims and equip decision-makers with remote portfolio insights.

Challenge

During storms, claim calls surge and both cost and AHT (Average Handling Time) spike. The team lacked analytical visibility to separate weather-driven claims from opportunistic occurrences and to guide payouts with confidence and speed.

Solution

Cittua mapped events at micro-area level, measuring weather-to-claim correlation. We found hotspots and also low-correlation cases that flag the need for deeper remote review before payment.

Gil Kempers

Secretário de Proteção e Defesa Civil de Petrópolis

"O Cittua é uma plataforma tecnológica que usa a inteligência artificial para gerar informações mais precisas, possibilitando que Petrópolis emita avisos e alertas de chuva para a população local e para quem visita a cidade. Todo o processo é feito por geolocalização através do aplicativo móvel, visando a prevenção e, consequentemente, salvar vidas."

Introduction

HDI’s POC cross-referenced historical claims with severe rain/wind (sensor-based data and time/location). Goal: pinpoint when weather drives claims and equip decision-makers with remote portfolio insights.

Challenge

During storms, claim calls surge and both cost and AHT (Average Handling Time) spike. The team lacked analytical visibility to separate weather-driven claims from opportunistic occurrences and to guide payouts with confidence and speed.

Solution

Cittua mapped events at micro-area level, measuring weather-to-claim correlation. We found hotspots and also low-correlation cases that flag the need for deeper remote review before payment.

Gil Kempers

Secretário de Proteção e Defesa Civil de Petrópolis

HDI POC: extreme weather fuels claims

We analyzed 80,790 HDI claims using geostatistics and ML, cross-matching with rain/wind. Result: BRL 175M in indemnities assessed; 59.8% concentrated in high-probability climate windows, fuel for decision-making and targeted audit.

The POC worked with 80,790 claims (≈75% residential, ≈23% commercial) across the territory, enabling robust analysis of severe-event impacts on claim activation. Electrical Damage and Windstorm stood out (≈29% and ≈18%), highlighting portfolio sensitivity to strong winds and electrical surges.

For each claim, we ingested weather-station and rain-sensors time series, modeled wind and precipitation, and computed time-window probabilities (high/medium/low), calibrating reference thresholds by event magnitude. Combining geostatistics with machine learning allowed us to infer the likelihood that a climate event triggered the claim and to measure the explanatory power of weather by region and period.

Aggregate results show BRL 175M in indemnities within the sample, with 59.8% falling into high-probability climate windows and 73.8% within high and medium, strong evidence that rain/wind drive claim spikes. In a sensitivity test excluding the 2020 “cyclone bomb” outlier, totals drop to BRL 132M, still with 57.8% in high probability, confirming the robustness of the signal.

Beyond high-correlation hotspots (for claims analysis), the POC surfaced low-correlation cases during critical windows, prime candidates for enhanced remote audit prior to payout. These findings enable proactive detection and targeted auditing, cutting cost after severe events and raising confidence in claim decisions.

Faça como Teresópolis: antecipe, alerte, proteja.

Lado a lado com a Defesa Civil: oficinas práticas, simulações e alertas hiperlocais no plano de contingência operacional da cidade. Previsão que Salva Vidas. Dados que viram decisão. Mais tempo para agir, mais segurança para a sua cidade.

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